Crypto
Wall Street Gives Bitcoin Two Different Grades in One Week as Fresh Money Arrives
Wall Street issued two different verdicts on Bitcoin this week, and the money moved in both directions. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $526.6 million on Monday, their largest daily inflow in nearly a month, while Citi cut its 12 month price target for Bitcoin to $112,000 from $143,000. Bitcoin traded near $81,400 on Tuesday, holding its ground as oil prices topped $111 a barrel and traders looked ahead to the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27 and 28.
Tuesday morning trading told the tension story in miniature. CoinDesk reported that Bitcoin slipped to around $81,400, down about half a percent since midnight UTC, even as the Monday ETF inflow showed institutional buyers stepping back in. Over on Deribit, puts outtraded calls by more than two to one and the October 30 put at $80,000 was the busiest contract on the board, a clear sign traders were paying for downside protection. By the time New York opened, Bitcoin had turned around and climbed back toward $82,500 on an unverified report that mediators had presented a proposal to revive talks between the U.S. and Iran, which pulled oil off its highs.
The bigger structural story belonged to Switzerland. On October 20 the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority approved the country's first retail spot Bitcoin ETF, a fund that holds Bitcoin directly under Swiss investment fund rules. FINMA granted an exception to the usual diversification requirements, pointing to Bitcoin's long trading history and deep market as justification. Fund providers must manage custody and operational risks and explain potential losses to investors in plain terms. Existing crypto products on Swiss exchanges are structured as debt instruments, so this is the first true fund structure available to ordinary Swiss savers, though the provider name and launch date have yet to be disclosed.
Citi's revised forecast explains why traders are hedging even as flows return. The bank cut its 12 month base case for Bitcoin to $112,000, a $31,000 trim from its earlier $143,000 call, and lowered Ethereum to $3,175 from $4,304. The analysts cited stalled U.S. crypto legislation and softening ETF inflows, though Monday's numbers complicate that second reason. The bearish case, $58,000 for Bitcoin, assumes a recession the bank considers unlikely. Even the trimmed targets imply strong upside from current prices, which makes the revision a calibration rather than a capitulation.
JPMorgan added its own long view the same day. The bank's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report introduced its first Bitcoin return scenarios, with a central estimate of annualized gains of 10% over the next decade and a wide range stretching from annual declines of 9.7% to gains of 17%. JPMorgan flagged Bitcoin's volatility and its shifting relationship with other assets as obstacles to broader portfolio adoption, but the inclusion itself marks a shift. A decade of track record now earns Bitcoin a permanent line in one of Wall Street's flagship planning documents.
Meanwhile the payment layer kept quietly growing. New research from Coinbase and The Block put adjusted stablecoin transfers at $891 billion in the third quarter, an hourly average above $400 million once automated and exchange related activity was filtered out. About 73% of that volume moved outside U.S. banking hours, a reminder that settlement on open networks follows the sun across time zones. For readers, the pattern is worth more than any single headline. Access is expanding through regulated funds, forecasts are moderating after a strong run, and the underlying payment rails keep setting records. That combination, new doors opening while expectations cool, is usually where the strongest cycles take root.
Readers ask what the Swiss approval changes for anyone outside Switzerland. The immediate effect is local, a regulated fund option for Swiss savers who want Bitcoin exposure through their brokerage. The wider signal travels further. Every time a major regulator approves a retail fund and then publishes clear custody and disclosure standards, the template exists for the next country to follow. Switzerland has done this before with bank licenses for crypto companies, and the market learned to read Swiss approvals as early chapters of a longer story.
Quick answers
What is this story about?
Wall Street issued two different verdicts on Bitcoin this week, and the money moved in both directions. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $526.6 million on Monday, their largest daily inflow in nearly a month, while Citi cut its 12 month price target for Bitcoin to $112,000 from $143,000. Bitcoin traded near $81,400 on Tuesday, holding its ground as oil prices topped $111 a barrel and traders looked ahead to the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27 and 28.
Why does this story matter?
Readers ask what the Swiss approval changes for anyone outside Switzerland. The immediate effect is local, a regulated fund option for Swiss savers who want Bitcoin exposure through their brokerage. The wider signal travels further. Every time a major regulator approves a retail fund and then publishes clear custody and disclosure standards, the template exists for the next country to follow. Switzerland has done this before with bank licenses for crypto companies, and the market learned to read Swiss approvals as early chapters of a longer story.
Sources
- CoinDesk, Bitcoin dips to $81,400 as ETF inflows return
- EtherWorld, Swiss FINMA clears first retail spot Bitcoin ETF
- BitRss, Citi cuts Bitcoin and Ethereum price targets
- The Crypto Basic, JPMorgan Bitcoin scenarios and $891B stablecoin quarter
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